Pakistani and Chinese researchers have mapped the development of meteorological drought into agricultural drought along the CPEC corridor, covering Xinjiang to Gwadar. The study, published in Atmospheric Research in January 2026, aims to improve drought management in arid regions.
Using data from 1981 to 2022, the team applied Enhanced Convergent Cross Mapping (ECCM) and neural-network models ANN, DNN, and FFNN supported by explainable AI to analyze drought propagation dynamics. The study identifies strong causal links between meteorological and agricultural drought, with propagation timing varying by region.
Results indicate that northern/southern Xinjiang and eastern Pakistan experience 3–4 month drought propagation, while eastern Xinjiang and western Pakistan see 1–2 months. Maximum temperature and soil moisture are highlighted as key drivers. The research was supported by China’s National Natural Science Foundation, Shenzhen’s Natural Science Foundation, and High-end Foreign Experts Introduction Projects.
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