Pakistan is set to begin the upcoming Rabi season with a healthy water outlook, as reservoirs currently hold more than 13 million acre-feet (MAF) of carryover storage, a level not seen in years. Officials say this promising development will help cushion losses to agriculture caused by the devastating floods during the outgoing Kharif season.
“We expect a normal water situation in the Rabi season after many years. Any shortage this year will be minimal and manageable,” an official remarked, noting that there is also optimism about carrying reserves into the next Kharif season.
Tarbela Dam has remained at its peak conservation level of 1,550 feet since last month, while Mangla Dam has reached 7.1 MAF of storage, just shy of its maximum 7.27 MAF. Although inflows into Mangla remain modest at around 18,800 cusecs, nearly half of which are released to meet drinking water needs, the reservoir has already surpassed last year’s peak level of 5.9 MAF.
Similarly, Chashma Barrage reached its peak storage of 649 feet this year, higher than the past two years. With Tarbela, Mangla, and Chashma combined, total water storage has reached 13.1 MAF, nearly 99 per cent of the system’s total capacity of 13.3 MAF. By comparison, storage stood at 11.38 MAF last year.
At present, all rivers are flowing at normal levels, except for moderate flooding in parts of the Sutlej River. Officials believe this year’s improved water availability, estimated at 35–36 MAF compared to the 37–38 MAF required for Rabi crops, will provide relief to farmers, especially those cultivating wheat, the season’s largest crop. Other major Rabi crops include gram, lentils, tobacco, rapeseed, barley, and mustard.
Despite the positive storage levels, authorities have expressed concern over the heavy sand deposits left on farmlands in Punjab by prolonged floodwaters. Unlike fertile silt that usually enriches soil, this sand could hinder cultivation. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) will review provincial water allocations once the flood situation recedes.
Officials also noted that around 24 MAF of water has already flowed into the sea since April 1, nearly double the combined capacity of Tarbela and Mangla. Still, with strong carryover reserves and normal river flows, Pakistan is entering the Rabi season with a far stronger position than in recent years.
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