Pakistan is expected to experience one of its coldest winters in decades due to the La Niña climate phenomenon, which is forecast to bring unusually low temperatures and disrupt weather patterns across the country, according to the latest UN-OCHA situation report compiled with the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG).
The report warns that colder-than-normal conditions will particularly affect flood-hit communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit Baltistan (GB), further straining recovery efforts following months of monsoon devastation.
La Niña occurs when Pacific Ocean surface temperatures drop abnormally, triggering global weather shifts that often cause extreme temperature fluctuations and erratic rainfall.
Rainfall Outlook and Regional Impact
The ISCG forecast indicates below-normal rainfall in northern Punjab, KP, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and GB, while Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab are likely to see near-normal precipitation. These changes stem from marginally negative phases of both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Potential Consequences
The report outlines multiple risks:
Disruption of Kharif crop harvesting due to isolated storms.
Increased threat of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the northern mountains.
Rising cases of dengue and malaria in stagnant floodwaters.
Declining river inflows could affect irrigation.
Intensified smog and air pollution in the plains.
Adverse impacts on livestock health and fodder availability.
Post-Flood Recovery Challenges
Pakistan’s post-flood crisis continues to deepen, with the report noting a diminishing response capacity from both the government and humanitarian partners. Initial aid stocks and emergency funds have been exhausted, and agencies are now seeking new funding to sustain basic services during the transition from relief to recovery.
A Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) assessment revealed that around 1.2 million hectares of farmland in Punjab, Pakistan’s agricultural heartland, remain inundated, destroying rice, cotton, and sugarcane crops. The flooding also disrupted the crucial Rabi crop planting window, threatening long-term food security and rural livelihoods.
Health and Shelter Crisis
Over 229,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, leaving thousands of families exposed to the cold and vector-borne diseases such as cholera, typhoid, and dengue. Many schools and health facilities remain non-operational, while food and fodder shortages continue to worsen malnutrition and economic instability.
What is La Niña?
La Niña, part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, emerges when trade winds strengthen, pushing warm water westward and cooling the eastern Pacific. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Niña conditions reappeared in September 2025 and are expected to last through February 2026, potentially influencing weather globally.
Experts warn that Pakistan’s combination of climate extremes, weak recovery systems, and post-flood vulnerabilities could make this winter one of the harshest in recent memory.
Related stories:
